Nearly two decades after international advocacy group Global Witness identified the risk of a state-within-a state in Liberia, ArcelorMittal has presented fresh concession deals that could solidify its hold on sovereign assets with trillions of dollars at stake.
ArcelorMittal Liberia (AML) is pressing for a third amendment to its Mineral Development Agreement (MDA) and revised Rail System Operating Principles (RSOPs) that critics say would entrench its control over the strategic Yekepa–Buchanan rail and port corridor, weakening Liberia’s sovereign oversight.
Leaked concession documents reviewed by the Oracle News Daily show AML proposed a “supremacy clause” that would make the company’s agreement prevail in any conflict with Liberian law. Observers warn that, if adopted, the clause could substantially limit the state’s regulatory authority over operations on the corridor — a key export route for iron ore and a major national asset.
The draft amendment also seeks to reclassify AML’s entire concession area as a “Single Production Area” treated as land under a mining license, giving the company authority to determine access to the railway and adjacent lands. Under the terms described, the arrangement would extend for more than 25 years and would require AML to pay an annual access fee of roughly US$500,000 — a sum critics say is disproportionately low given the value of the corridor.
The rail port corridor is among Liberia’s most mineral rich areas. Former Mines and Energy Minister Wilmot Paye has estimated that about 17 billion tonnes of iron ore exists along the line, which he calculates could have a theoretical market value of roughly US$2.38 trillion at current prices.
Global Witness warned more than two decades ago that concession structures could create a “state within a state”. Analysts say the proposed changes would bring that risk closer to reality.
In a recent promise, AML told Liberian authorities the revised MDA would generate approximately US$100 million in government revenue, but the leaked documents and outside observers say the basis for that estimate and the accountability mechanisms are unclear.
Historically, critics note, AML has paid a fixed fee of about US$800,000 “in lieu of all import duties, taxes and fees” and has been responsible for its own production and export reporting under the original MDA, with a period of tax stabilization on imports and fuel lasting 15 years.
ArcelorMittal’s Q3 FY25 results indicate record iron ore production and exports from Liberia, contributing to the group’s growth and a rise in its share price.
AML is a Cyprus based entity with the Liberian state owning a 15% stake, a figure which has dropped from 30% without explanation. The company does not, according to the materials, disclose local turnover, tax payments or dividend transfers to the Liberian state.
Civil society actors and international observers have argued that the amendment would entrench a monopoly, limit multi-user access to the railway and port, discourage competition and broader investment, and reduce potential jobs and revenues that an open, multiuser system could deliver.
The draft language also appears to constrain the National Rail Authority’s ability to appoint an independent operator, the documents say.
In his departure speech, former minister Paye urged stronger national oversight and transparency. “We cannot continue to be pushed around for peanuts while this country sits on abundant minerals with the potential to transform it into a first world nation,” he said.
“We must never allow a single company to control or possess [the rail corridor] for any reason. This is not just about economics; it is about national sovereignty and the future of Liberia.”
Negotiations between AML and Liberia’s Inter Ministerial Concession Committee (IMCC) are ongoing. Governance watchdogs and some investors say independent audits, transparent revenue projections and legal safeguards will be essential to ensure private investment does not undermine Liberia’s sovereign control over strategic infrastructure.
