By Sidiki Fofana / Truth In Ink
In Liberian politics, numbers are not just statistics, they are survival and path to winning. Our Constitution is unambiguous; to be President, you need 50% of the votes cast plus one. That “plus one” could be a market woman in Buchanan, a first-time voter in Ganta, a returning diaspora voter, or a disenchanted partisan who was retained rather than “let go.” Every single human being counts.
That is why any party, especially one chasing a “comeback”, should sound the alarm when members walk away. Celebrating departures with slogans like “Let them leave” or “We will get stronger without them” is, as one Liberian political analyst put it, “short-sight masquerading as strategy.”
Professor Nathaniel Toe, political scientist at the University of Liberia, put it best:
“Elections are like selling palm oil in the market, if you keep losing customers and refuse to attract new ones, you will end up closing the shop.”
CDC’s Own History Speaks Volumes
In 2017, CDC’s base alone was not enough. Victory came through “addition” forming the Coalition for Democratic Change, pulling in fresh members and new voter blocs. That formula swept 14 of Liberia’s 15 counties and delivered a landslide.
By 2023, the story flipped. The coalition fractured. Key figures left. Others drifted. And the Result? A loss by fewer than 20,000 votes, one of the slimmest presidential margins in West Africa’s recent history.
As one Monrovia-based election observer told Truth In Ink:
“CDC didn’t lose because people hated them, they lost because they couldn’t keep the numbers together.”
The Global Lesson
International campaign strategist Carla Mendez, who has advised winning campaigns in Latin America and Africa, doesn’t sugarcoat it:
“The idea that you can win while bleeding members is political suicide. Retention is as important as recruitment. Smart parties build bridges to keep defectors inside while opening new doors for undecided voters.”
Across competitive democracies, winning parties follow the same math: keep your base intact, add new voters, and block defections. Every departure is either a vote for the other side, or a vote lost to apathy.
The 2029 Challenge
By 2029, Liberia could add over 500,000 new eligible voters to the roll. If CDC wants the Executive Mansion back, it must win at least 60% of those new voters, and win back many it lost in 2023. That requires expanding its base by nearly 90% compared to today’s active numbers.
“Let them go” won’t get that done. “Keep our people and grow our ranks” should be the rally cry.
Recommendations for CDC if it wants to Win:
- Retention First Policy: Fix problems before members quit. Create “effective engagement dialogue” at national, county and district levels.
- Rebuild Strategic Alliances: The 2017 coalition formula worked. Rekindle old partnerships and explore new, even unlikely, alliances.
- Target New Voter Segments: Youth, first-time voters, diaspora returnees, women’s groups, and professionals. Start now, not in 2028.
- Exit Interviews: When someone leaves, find out why and address it. Don’t just wave them off with slogans.
- Unity Messaging: Replace “let them leave” with “we are stronger together.”
- Base Expansion Drives: Ongoing recruitment, door-to-door outreach, and a constant community presence.
As another Liberian analyst put it:
“The man who says ‘let them leave’ when people walk out of his house will one day find himself living alone.”
If CDC wants to reclaim power in 2029, it must learn this truth; “Elections are about numbers”. requiring not only an aggressive recruitment strategy but also an effective retention plan. Addition without subtraction wins. Addition with constant subtraction loses. The choice is ours.
