By Sidiki Fofana – Truth in Ink
For nearly twenty years, Liberia’s political power game has been a two-man show: the Congress for Democratic Change (CDC) and the Unity Party (UP) taking turns in the driver’s seat. In that time, the nation has seen hope recycled, promises repackaged, and the same political rivalry dressed in new campaign colors. Today, a new name is stirring conversations, the Citizen Movement for Change (CMC), led by Hon. Musa Bility.
The question is simple but loaded: Is this the much-anticipated “third lane” that could shatter the CDC–UP monopoly, or just another early-season spark that fizzle when the real heat of elections begins?
The Rise of CMC: Early Noise, Early Promise
Musa Bility’s financial strength, his business acumen, and his football administrator profile have given CMC an undeniable early edge. For many politically exhausted Liberians, especially the youth and professionals, the party feels like a breath of fresh air, a possible break from the exhausting pendulum swing between CDC and UP.
“I’m tired of voting for the same two groups and getting the same suffering,” says Rebecca Johnson, a small business owner in Red Light. “If CMC can really be different, I will give them my vote.”
But Liberia’s political history warns: early attention does not always mean lasting impact.
History’s Harsh Lesson: The Third Force Struggle.
Liberia’s multi-party democracy has dangled the idea of a “third force” before, only to see it collapse. The Alternative National Congress (ANC) under Alexander Cummings entered 2017 with high expectations but stumbled on grassroots reach and branding, eventually losing its independence in coalition politics.
“Liberians love a new name,” says Professor Isaac Karneh, a political science lecturer at the University of Liberia. “But when the big parties turn up the heat, many of these so-called third forces either join them or disappear.”
Where CMC Could Break the Cycle.
To avoid becoming another political footnote, CMC must dig into these cracks:
- Voter Fatigue:
“People are tired,” says Alfred Toe, a motorcycle rider in Buchanan. “We want someone who can talk to us about real work, not just politics.”
- Youth Power: Over 60% of voters are under 35. They are less bound to war-era loyalties and more open to political experiments.
- Middle-Class Frustration: If they can stabilize the economy and support business growth, they’ll get my support,” says George Kromah, a Paynesville shop owner.
The Traps That Kill a Third Force
- Buzz Without Backbone: “We’ve seen parties win Facebook and lose the election,” warns Sarah Nimely, a civil society advocate. Unless CMC plants roots in all 15 counties, likes won’t translate to votes.
- Political Hit Jobs: Expect legal, financial, and propaganda attacks from CDC and UP.
- Coalition Temptation: The quickest way to lose credibility is to merge too soon with the old guard.
Truth In Ink County-by-County Viability Projection:
- Strong Potential (CMC could make real inroads)
- Nimba County: Musa Bility’s home base. Potential to pull disillusioned voters from both CDC and UP if local alliances are managed well. 2. Montserrado County: Liberia’s largest voting bloc. CMC could appeal to urban youth, middle-class frustration, and the politically undecided.
- Margibi County: Economic hub with voters open to non-traditional politics; could be swayed by a reformist economic plan.
- Moderate Opportunity (Requires sustained ground game)
- Bong County: Swing region historically shifting between CDC and UP. Needs strong local candidates and consistent outreach.
- Grand Bassa County: Politically fluid, but voters expect visible community projects before shifting allegiance.
- Lofa County: UP stronghold; cracks may appear if economic promises remain unfulfilled.
- Low Probability (CMC faces steep resistance)
- Grand Kru, Sinoe, Maryland: Deep CDC loyalty, especially in Weah’s base regions. Breaking through will be costly and time-consuming.
- Bomi, Cape Mount, Gbarpolu: Strong traditional alliances to either CDC or UP. Requires major local endorsements to gain traction.
Dark Horse or Just Another Name?
Unless CMC builds a nationwide grassroots machine, delivers a clear ideological message, and shields itself from elite co-optation, it risks becoming just another promising headline, like the ANC before it.
“I support the idea of change,” says Representative John Kollie of Bong County, “but change without structure is just a campaign slogan. The CMC will have to prove it’s ready for the long fight.”
Truth in Ink Verdict
Right now, CMC is an intriguing dark horse, worthy of attention but far from a guaranteed third lane. The next 18–24 months will decide whether it can cement itself as a national force or fade quietly, leaving CDC and UP to resume their two-decade tug-of-war.
As one Monrovia market woman put it: “We’re waiting to see who will actually put food on the table. If CMC can do that, they will be our party. If not, they’re just another name.”
