By Sidiki Fofana / Truth in Ink
Liberia’s political highway has long been dominated by two lanes- the Congress for Democratic Change (CDC) and the Unity Party (UP). For nearly two decades, voters have been forced to choose between these giants, whether out of loyalty, fear of the other, or resignation that “no one else can win.” But as 2029 draws closer, whispers of a possible third lane, a strong party or coalition breaking into the race, have begun to echo in communities, marketplaces, and political circles.
The question that lingers is simple; if such a “third lane” rises, who stands to gain: CDC or UP?
The Unity Party’s Vulnerability
The Unity Party, now in power under Joseph Boakai, would have the most to lose. Because much of its current support base did not rally out of deep love for the party, but rather out of desperation to remove George Weah in 2023. That “anyone but Weah” coalition was wide but unsustainable- long term vulnerability.
A University of Liberia political scientist told Truth in Ink: “The Unity Party’s base is like water poured into a basket; it holds only because people are tired of CDC. Once an alternative vessel comes, that water will flow out.”
This is already visible in the streets. In Paynesville, a university student put it plainly: “I voted Boakai because I didn’t want Weah. But if another serious party comes in 2029, I won’t waste my vote on Unity again.”
In and outside the capital too, the discontent grows. A farmer in Lofa added: “We gave UP chance because of Boakai. But if they fail us, we can try another way. This third-party business, it can happen.”
The CDC’s Insulation
The CDC, on the other hand, is better insulated. Its support is not built on technocracy, but on loyalty, identity, and the cult of George Weah. For many of its base in Montserrado, Southeast, and among struggling urban youth, CDC is not just a party, it is home.
A kehkeh rider in waterside put it with no hesitation: “No matter the hardship, I am CDC. I can vex small, but I can’t leave. CDC is my house.”
That kind of loyalty is difficult to shake. While a third lane might impress elites or disappointed reformists and alliance members, it will struggle to pry CDC’s grassroots away. In fact, it could even work to CDC’s advantage. By splitting the anti-CDC vote, a third lane could leave CDC’s block intact while Unity Party bleeds.
As a professor of mass communication describes: “Elections are about addition and subtraction. CDC’s numbers remain constant; UP’s numbers fluctuate. So, a third party automatically weakens Unity more than CDC.”
The Challenge for CDC
The challenge, however, to CDC benefiting from this new emergence is CDC itself. The party’s proven inability to tolerate the formation of new parties, especially if some of those forming them are former CDC members or affiliates, often through emotion undermines any possible coalition-building. Added to this, is the deep cultural belief within the party that no other person or party matters beyond the influence of George Weah. This mindset burns bridges long before the actual need to form coalitions begins.
Liberia’s political history has already proven that a single party rarely has the capacity and resources to win an election on its own. In 2017, George Weah’s victory depended heavily on the coalition with Jewel Howard-Taylor, Alex Tyler and Prince Johnson’s influence in Bong, Bomi and Nimba representing the NPP, LPDP and MDR. Without those alliances, the CDC might never have reached the 50%+1 threshold.
The lesson is not just Liberian. Ghana’s elections in 2000 tell a similar story. The New Patriotic Party (NPP) could not defeat the ruling NDC until it built broad alliances with smaller groups, uniting under a “Change” message. When they did, John Kufuor finally ended two decades of NDC dominance. Without coalition-building, NPP would have remained a permanent opposition force.
If CDC refuses to learn these lessons, alienating potential partners and clinging only to Weah’s personality, it risks turning a golden opportunity into a strategic miscalculation. The very third lane that could have weakened UP might instead rise to compete head-to-head with it.
A Possible 2029 Scenario
Let’s imagine a simple first-round split in 2029:
- CDC: 40% (holding on to its solid loyal base)
- Unity Party: 35% (losing urban disappointed reformists alliance, and youth to the third lane)
- Third Lane: 25% (drawing dissatisfied UP and CDC supporters and fresh voters)
This scenario leads to a runoff between CDC and UP. But here lies the trap for Unity Party; the third lane’s supporters, frustrated with UP’s governance, may refuse to return to Boakai’s fold, or demand concessions that fracture UP further. Meanwhile, CDC walks into the second round with an intact, motivated base.
This is the mathematics of fragmentation; CDC benefits more when the race is crowded. UP survives only when it is able to consolidate the anti-CDC vote.
Who Benefits?
In logical terms: CDC stands to benefit more that is if it able to adapt. And this is why:
- CDC must retain its loyalists while watching its rival fragment.
- UP, already vulnerable to governance fatigue and public disappointment, risks losing its reformist edge to a new competitor.
- A three-horse race could push the election into a runoff where CDC’s unshakable base becomes its greatest advantage, unless CDC repeats its history of burning bridges.
A market woman in Duala summed it up with the wisdom of experience: “Third party or not, CDC people don’t move. But Unity people can shift. That’s why CDC will enjoy if another party comes. But if CDC vex with everybody, they can suffer too.”
The political interpretation is that If a third lane emerges, Liberia’s politics will not necessarily become cleaner or easier. But it will expose a critical truth; Unity Party’s hold on power is fragile, while CDC’s grip on its base is resilient, yet also self-sabotaging if it refuses to adapt.
For UP, the challenge will be to absorb reformist energy before it escapes. For CDC, the strategy must go beyond just waiting for fragmentation. It must overcome its own intolerance, broaden its coalition, and realize that loyalty alone cannot secure victory.
In the end, the rise of a third lane may well strengthen democracy. But politically, It could make or break both giants, depending on who learns the lesson faster.
