By Festus Poquie
With an estimated 400,000 voters poised to cast their ballots, Tuesday Senate election in Nimba County is seen as pivotal not just for local representation but for shaping the political landscape ahead of the presidential polls scheduled for October 2029.
The campaign has been intensive, as key candidates vie for an edge in what is shaping up to be a fiercely contested race.
Top political figures, including former President Ellen Johnson Sirleaf and current President Joseph Boakai, have taken clear stances in support of their favored candidates.
Sirleaf is championing the feminist agenda by backing Edith Gongloe-Weh, the sole female candidate in the race. In an interesting twist, President George Weah’s Coalition for Democratic Change also aligns with Gongloe-Weh, further bolstering her campaign.
Meanwhile, President Boakai and his ruling Unity Party Alliance throw their weight behind incumbent District 5 Representative Samuel Kogar.
Tensions have been palpable as candidates compete for critical support from the electorate. As the race narrows, questions arise about the pathways to victory for both Kogar and Gongloe-Weh.
Edith Gongloe-Weh appears to have an upper hand. However, her success hinges on her ability to mobilize the Mano voter base. She must perform successfully in districts where the Mano population is significant, such as Electoral Districts 1, 2, 8, and 9.
Gongloe-Weh’s previous electoral performance shows promise—she secured over 68% in District 8 during the 2020 Special Election, a statistical advantage she hopes to replicate.
On the other hand, Kogar’s campaign has employed tribal and sectarian strategies. Vice President Jeremiah Koung has publicly urged voters to support Kogar for his Gio heritage, asserting that the contested Senate seat left vacant by the late Senator Prince Johnson should go to a member of the Gio-speaking community to maintain tribal balance in representation.
This approach may benefit Kogar if Mano voters feel less inclined to back a candidate from a different ethnic group.
However, Kogar’s strategy could backfire if it alienates the Mano population. Should the Mano voters see a sense of entitlement in their own ethnic representation, a massive turnout in favor of Edith could sway the results. Kogar needs to perform strongly in districts dominated by the Gio community, including Electoral Districts 3, 4, 5, and 7.
A review of recent electoral data illustrates the competitive nature of this race. Kogar, despite being a sitting representative, received 37,899 votes in the 2024 senatorial by election, whereas Gongloe-Weh garnered 34,153 votes in the 2020 Special Elections.
Yet, Kogar’s support drew heavily from the Gio districts, which will likely serve as a battleground in this election.
As of now, the race is too close to call. The decisions made by voters in Nimba County will not only determine their Senate representation but may also set the tone for the broader political narrative leading into the distanced 2029 presidential elections.
Analysts believe that both candidates have clear pathways to victory, but with different strategies at play—the outcome will ultimately depend on voter mobilization, turnout, and sentiment in this deeply divided constituency.
With polls opening early Tuesday Morning, the eyes of the nation are firmly fixed on Nimba County, anticipating not just the results of the Senate race, but the influence these outcomes will have on Liberia’s political future.
