By Festus Poquie
Liberia’s export mix showed strong production gains in the second quarter of 2025, driven by a rebound in mining and palm oil, but rubber—the country’s traditional cash crop buckled under lower smallholder output, the Central Bank of Liberia reported.
Rubber output fell 4.1% quarter-on-quarter to 21,616 metric tons in Q2 2025 from 22,541 mt in Q1, a decline attributed primarily to reduced tapping and deliveries by smallholder farmers. Despite the quarterly drop, rubber output was up sharply year on year.
Iron ore production surged 161.9% quarter-on-quarter to 3.63 million metric tons, reflecting expanded capacity at ArcelorMittal mine and newly installed facilities. On an annual basis iron ore output increased by 189.0 percent.
Gold and diamonds also rose in the quarter: gold production climbed 12.1% to 110,784 ounces, while diamond output increased 7.1% to 8,473 carats.
Crude palm oil showed a dramatic quarterly increase of 69.5% to 5,977 metric tons, supported by higher smallholder production.
Timber and cocoa volumes were mixed: sawn timber and round logs dipped modestly in the quarter (seasonal effects), while cocoa fell Q on Q but was substantially higher than a year earlier.
Export earnings
The production mix points to potentially stronger export receipts overall, led by the iron ore and gold gains. Iron ore’s sharp quarterly ramp-up is particularly significant for export revenues because it involves bulk shipments and typically generates sizable foreign-exchange inflows per unit produced.
Likewise, the rise in gold output—combined with elevated global gold prices in recent periods should bolster export earnings.
By contrast, the quarterly decline in rubber production is likely to weigh on rubber export receipts in the short term. Rubber remains an important agricultural export for Liberia, and lower smallholder production can depress export volumes even if global prices firm.
Cocoa’s quarterly fall also tempers agricultural export prospects, although its year-on-year recovery suggests a deeper seasonal and price-driven story.
Liberia is a relatively small player in the global natural rubber market, which is dominated by Southeast Asian producers. The country’s Q2 output of roughly 21,600 metric tons represents only a sliver of global production, meaning Liberia’s volumes have limited influence on world prices.
However, for Liberia’s rural economy and export basket, rubber remains strategically important. Smallholder performance, weather, and farm-level support continue to determine near-term export flows and earnings.
The recent surge in iron ore output marks a meaningful domestic development. While Liberia’s tonnage remains modest compared with the world’s largest producers (where annual outputs are measured in the hundreds of millions of tons), a quarterly yield of 3.63 million metric tons is a substantial increase for the country and can translate into significant foreign-exchange receipts and fiscal revenue if sustained.
Continued investment in mine capacity, logistics and port facilities will determine how much of this production is converted into durable export earnings.
The Central Bank’s Q2 data underline two key imperatives for policymakers and the private sector. First, improving smallholder support and supply chain services for rubber and other agricultural exports could stabilize volumes and protect rural incomes.
Second, maximizing the revenue benefit of mining expansion through robust regulation, local content, and infrastructure investment will be essential to turn production gains into broader economic development.
Liberia’s export earnings for the rest of 2025 will hinge on operational continuity at mining sites, the responsiveness of smallholder producers to price and extension incentives, and trends in global commodity prices.
The Central Bank’s report provides an early signal that the country’s export profile is shifting toward heavier mining-led receipts even as traditional agricultural exports face seasonal and production challenges.
