Liberia risks forfeiting between US$14.8 billion and US$18.4 billion in long-term rail corridor revenues and potentially more than US$30 billion under regional pricing benchmarks if the government accepts ArcelorMittal Liberia’s (AML) proposed third amendment to its Mineral Development Agreement (MDA) and preserves a single user rail monopoly, analysts and local stakeholders warn.
The Inter Ministerial Concessions Committee (IMCC) is currently deliberating the amendment, a process described by industry experts as pivotal for the country’s mining sector and broader fiscal outlook.
At issue is whether the Yekepa–Buchanan railway will remain an AML exclusive asset or be restructured as an open, multi-user corridor.
Key numbers and benchmark assumptions
Geological surveys identify more than 17 billion tonnes of iron ore in Liberia, with roughly 12 billion tonnes located along or near the Yekepa–Buchanan corridor and about 9 billion tonnes of high-grade ore in northern Nimba.
Using product access and cross border transit fees from a recently publicized Ivanhoe Atlantic framework [US$2.05–US$1.65 per tonne, shared by Senator Amara M. Konneh], the 9 billion tonnes in northern Nimba would generate between US$14.8 billion and US$18.4 billion in revenue over the life of the deposits. This equal to about US$594–US$738 million per year averaged revenue inflow over 25 years, constituting roughly 15.5% of GDP using 2024 estimates.
These calculations exclude royalties, corporate taxes, port dues and deposits elsewhere on the corridor. Applying regional transport rates of US$3–US$7 per tonne would propel lifetime corridor revenues well past US$30 billion.
Contrast with AML’s fiscal record
AML’s reported fiscal contributions — including royalties and taxes over nearly two decades total less than US$700 million, according to company filings and independent analysis.
ArcelorMittal Liberia has proposed a US$200 million deposit in exchange for exclusive future access; a figure many stakeholders say is inadequate compared with the corridor’s foregone revenue potential.
AML’s own 2023 annual report cites recurrent derailments and infrastructure issues along the Yekepa–Buchanan line, underscoring concerns about reliability under a sole operator model.
Policy analysts argue that a multiuser rail system, collecting recurring throughput fees, could generate far greater and more predictable revenues over time than one-off payments or exclusive rights.
Civil society alarm and regional impact
The Global Alliance of Grand Gedeans (GAGG) warned that the leaked draft of AML’s third amendment poses “a threat to Liberia’s sovereignty and a bad bargain for Grand Gedeh County,” and said the deal would effectively block independent operators for at least a decade. Local leaders in Grand Gedeh and Lofa counties told the Daily Observer that the monopoly would deter investment in untapped deposits such as the Putu Mountain range.
Analysts and civil society groups urge the IMCC to adopt the following measures and international best practice before ratifying any amendment:
- Commission a transparent, independent economic impact assessment comparing monopoly and open access scenarios incorporating royalties, taxes, port dues and spillover effects.
- Run competitive, international tenders for rail operations or management under an open access regime with published, nondiscriminatory tariffs.
- Tie corridor fees to transparent benchmarks with regular reviews and include enforceable performance and maintenance obligations.
- Conduct inclusive consultations with county representatives and prospective mining operators.
The IMCC’s decision will shape investment flows, fiscal returns and infrastructure governance for decades. Based on established industrial cash flow and revenue assumptions, preserving a de facto monopoly risks long-term revenue losses, reduced foreign direct investment in Liberia’s mineral sector, and concentrated operational risk on a critical logistics artery.
An open, multi-user approach, proponents say, would more equitably capture the corridor’s value for the national budget and broaden opportunities for domestic and international investors.
